Welcome To Bear Country

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Quote

“There were 0 failed banks last week, there are 5 right now.” - MFM Podcast

Bear Attack

It’s dangerous out there.

Stocks have been in the red, banks failing, and rumors of the housing market taking a dive are in the air.

In other words, it feels like this bear market is in full effect. Last week we talked about why most of these events likely don’t matter.

But in case you are already feeling the pain, here are a few pointers to keep this bear from mauling you any further.

Bears Hate DCA

Yes, I know this is probably the number one result when you google “how to survive a bear market.” But here is something different to try.

Keep your investment schedule the same, but every time we hit a new low (hopefully not many more) try to buy just a small amount.

For me, this is $50, but for you, it might be $500 or $5. The point here is building a habit of seeing red as an opportunity.

In actual bear attack terms, we are trying the “stand your ground and look big” tactic.

Odds of Survival

That three-month chart you keep looking at that is bright red, chunk it. We need it to show three years plus at a minimum.

For example, if you search “S&P 500 chart” the default time frame we get is 1 day.

Sorry Google, but we actually don’t care. Click that 5-year button and watch your hopes and dreams improve.

This is the classic zoom-out approach to shows that your odds of surviving this market are actually quite good. To be exact, on a yearly basis the market has a 75% chance of returning positive, increase this to 10 years and it jumps to 94.9%.

These odds are actually quite similar to a bear attack where you have an 86% chance of survival. (Don’t say you didn’t learn something today)

Play Dead

This is the point of no return, commonly referred to as playing dead in the actual bear attack world.

Take your investing app, drag it to the last page, then hide it in a folder (idk if Androids can even do this). Basically, you know this bear is about to tear you to pieces. He’s in full charge, you are stuck in the open, and he has an appetite for fearful investors.

Your best shot is to play dead and hope he leaves you with only a few minor losses before going on to the next person selling all their QQQ.

Conclusion

You have probably heard these tips before, just not said in a way that involves a man-eating grizzly.

Hopefully, this made these stick, or at least gave you a chuckle.

Either way, it’s obvious bears are on the prowl right now.

Stay frosty out there, Cade.

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Cade's Finds

Time Horizon Is Everything - Article by Ben Carlson that provides more stats on the market’s odds of returning positive.

Should You Buy A Home In 2023 - This is a question I have been asking myself, and right on queue, The Money Guy Podcast posted this.

Best Memes

This guy is struggling right now.

The boys one, corporate zero.

Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. Thanks for reading, if you have any questions, comments, suggestions, etc. about the email don’t hesitate to send me a reply.